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  • Mortgage Backed Securities: This Time Is Different
    March 20, 2023
    Mortgage Backed Securities: This Time Is Different
    Mortgage Backed Securities: This Time Is Different

    Banks are blowing up, investors are panicking, and it's hard not to think back to 2008

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  • How to tell we had a ‘FOMO’ rally to start the year
    March 13, 2023
    How to tell we had a ‘FOMO’ rally to start the year
    How to tell we had a ‘FOMO’ rally to start the year

    Many investors got the 'FOMO' feeling as the market started strong in 2023. However, to determine if this is the start of a new bull market or just a bull trap, investors should consider two key pieces of data: the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Exposure Index and stock market correlations. In today's FA Alpha, we will discuss what the initial rally of 2023 really means for investors.

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  • Don’t look at the banks to understand the next recession
    March 6, 2023
    Don’t look at the banks to understand the next recession
    Don’t look at the banks to understand the next recession

    We're wrapping up the busiest part of earnings season, and as always, some key themes emerged as businesses reported first-quarter numbers. So let's take a moment to look back at the companies that kicked it off... the banks. One of the big stories for banks this earnings season was bigger-than-expected loan loss reserve builds.

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  • The unintended consequence of the supply-chain supercycle
    February 27, 2023
    The unintended consequence of the supply-chain supercycle
    The unintended consequence of the supply-chain supercycle

    It's no secret that we're bullish on the U.S. economy.

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  • The bear market that isn’t
    February 13, 2023
    The bear market that isn’t
    The bear market that isn’t

    There has been a great deal of ink spilled about how we entered a bear market last year... and about how stocks came crashing down from their phenomenal performance in 2021.

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  • Doubling down on ‘Pax Americana’
    February 6, 2023
    Doubling down on ‘Pax Americana’
    Doubling down on ‘Pax Americana’

    China isn't the model for growth it once was...

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  • Don’t expect interest rates to fade any time soon
    January 30, 2023
    Don’t expect interest rates to fade any time soon
    Don’t expect interest rates to fade any time soon

    The economy seems to be calming down again after interest-rate hikes. But with a new set of challenges in 2023, the Fed isn't ready to lower interest rates yet. There are some metrics useful in deciding when to lower interest rates such as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). In today's FA Alpha, we'll see why the Fed is using PCE data as one of its preferred inflation metrics.

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  • Unpacking the unemployment rate
    January 23, 2023
    Unpacking the unemployment rate
    Unpacking the unemployment rate

    Unemployment is still defying the odds. The December unemployment rate came in at a 50-year low of 3.5%. The U.S. added another 223,000 jobs to the economy. Economists only expected an additional 200,000 jobs.

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  • Gearing up for a sideways market in 2023
    January 9, 2023
    Gearing up for a sideways market in 2023
    Gearing up for a sideways market in 2023

    Things have changed a lot in a decade. Inflation is increasing in the world's largest economies followed by trade disruptions due to conflicting countries. A pandemic resulting in supply-chain delays persists. As we look ahead to 2023, we’ll look at how earnings might play out in 2023, as the numbers tell us to expect a sideways market in today's FA Alpha.

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  • Checking in on the post-WWII playbook
    December 27, 2022
    Checking in on the post-WWII playbook
    Checking in on the post-WWII playbook

    With a negative real GDP growth in the first quarter, high inflation, and a bear market, people can’t stop talking about the economic downturn the U.S. might be facing. Originally published in July, let's revisit this article that delved into the similarities between the 1945 recession and the current market climate.

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  • Mixed messages about the U.S. economy
    December 19, 2022
    Mixed messages about the U.S. economy
    Mixed messages about the U.S. economy

    It's no secret that the market has been trending downward in recent months. Everywhere you turn, the financial media can't stop talking about the possibility of a recession.

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  • These sectors are leading the way into 2023
    December 12, 2022
    These sectors are leading the way into 2023
    These sectors are leading the way into 2023

    Investors are setting their sights on a strong close to the year... We're basically through the third-quarter earnings season. Most companies have released quarterly results. And we have a clear picture of their performance.

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  • Corporate spending is back on the rise
    December 5, 2022
    Corporate spending is back on the rise
    Corporate spending is back on the rise

    Companies are changing where they spend money.

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  • We’re not out of the woods yet
    November 28, 2022
    We’re not out of the woods yet
    We’re not out of the woods yet

    Restarting student loan payments will test the consumer balance sheets. The Fed is aggressively raising rates in order to control the high inflation in passing months. September's CPI of 8.2% is perceived as a low CPI, but it is not. Today's FA Alpha will focus on the capacity of companies and consumers to borrow money.

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  • Student loans are coming back, and they could lead to a ‘domino effect’
    November 21, 2022
    Student loans are coming back, and they could lead to a ‘domino effect’
    Student loans are coming back, and they could lead to a ‘domino effect’

    There are 26 million out of 43 million Americans, with federal student loan debt, who have sought forgiveness and 16 million applicants have been approved. We weren't worried about the economy in the early stages of the pandemic since consumer balance sheets were solid. However, the impacts of the pandemic had a huge influence on the economy, and student loan payments are soon to resume. In today's FA Alpha, we will discover if consumer balance sheets are as solid as we believe they are, which might influence a potential recession.

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  • Two ‘surefire’ recession indicators are saying different things
    November 14, 2022
    Two ‘surefire’ recession indicators are saying different things
    Two ‘surefire’ recession indicators are saying different things

    Between the 10th and the 13th of each month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index ("CPI") data. It measures the monthly change in prices paid by consumers.

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  • Here’s how midterms could affect market valuations
    October 31, 2022
    Here’s how midterms could affect market valuations
    Here’s how midterms could affect market valuations

    Investors are on the edge of their seats this election cycle... And it's not for purely political reasons. Right now, both the Senate and the House of Representatives are controlled by the Democratic party. Neither majority is safe, though. Both majorities are up for grabs next month. Smart investors are wondering how the outcome might change market performance over the next two years.

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  • Don’t fear inflation today – fear inflation tomorrow
    October 24, 2022
    Don’t fear inflation today – fear inflation tomorrow
    Don’t fear inflation today – fear inflation tomorrow

    Between the 10th and the 13th of each month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index ("CPI") data. It measures the monthly change in prices paid by consumers.

    Read More
  • The U.K.’s Anti-Inflation Efforts May Have Done More Harm Than Good
    October 17, 2022
    The U.K.’s Anti-Inflation Efforts May Have Done More Harm Than Good
    The U.K.’s Anti-Inflation Efforts May Have Done More Harm Than Good

    Feeling the pressure, newly appointed Prime Minister Liz Truz, sets new appointees to address the tumbling economy of U.K. One of her new appointees, the chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng, revealed his plan to boost the U.K. economy by proposing tax cuts and increasing borrowings. In today’s FA Alpha, let’s examine this recent move and how the newly appointed leaders could save the British economy.

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  • Powell is taking a page out of Paul Volcker’s Playbook
    October 10, 2022
    Powell is taking a page out of Paul Volcker’s Playbook
    Powell is taking a page out of Paul Volcker’s Playbook

    Former Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker waged a ruthless war on inflation... Volcker was the Fed's top dog from 1979 until 1987 – one of the highest-inflation periods in U.S. history. And he's widely credited with getting prices back under control through a series of bold policy moves.

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