The Latest from

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  August 15, 2022

  Our last history lesson takes us into a Pax Americana

  

  With American businesses positioned strategically to benefit from global innovation, cost, and geopolitical advantages, with investments accelerating into the supply-chain supercycle, the U.S. seemingly has the perfect recipe for strong economic growth and excellent stock returns in the years and decades to come. Today’s FA Alpha Daily will look back at the economy during the late 1940s through the mid-1960s and assess if the U.S. is on the cusp of a new Pax Americana.

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  August 8, 2022

  Our economic example continues into 1949

  

  If we look at all the data that matters, it's clear this recession is different from 2008 or the Great Depression. This is a ‘recession in name only’ (RINO), not a real recession.

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  August 1, 2022

   An Economics Lesson From 1947 and 1948, Part 2

  

  As markets tanked in mid-June and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it known that a 0.75% interest-rate hike was on the table, Google Trends searches for "Recession" skyrocketed.

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  July 25, 2022

  An Economics Lesson from 1947 and 1948, part 1

  

  The Federal Reserve faced a crossroads in tackling the rising inflation—it was either raising the interest rates earlier during the economic recovery, which would prevent a 2021 rebound, or hiking the interest rates aggressively as soon as it recognized inflation wasn't "transitory." Today’s FA Alpha Daily will examine how the Fed addressed the inflation of 1947 when the U.S. experienced similar rampant inflation, and how the stock market responded.

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  July 18, 2022

  We are looking to post-war America to understand inflation in 2022

  

  Last week, we talked about the 1945 recession and its similarities to today's economy. Back then, the U.S. navigated a recession without skipping a beat. This was thanks to strong employment demand and underlying nominal gross domestic product ("GDP") growth as we emerged from the war.

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  July 11, 2022

  To understand today’s market climate, we have to look back to 1945

  

  According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy for more than a few months." That's a pretty loose definition

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  June 27, 2022

  Jamie Dimon’s Weather Forecast Just Changed

  

  Back in April, the JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO gave Wall Street a warning. On the bank's first-quarter earnings call, he signaled that there could be a recession.

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  June 13, 2022

  Financial media made earnings out to be a bloodbath…Here’s how they are missing the picture

  

  Headlines about firms' missed earnings, supply chain disruptions, and inflationary pressures stir up the recession narrative. Today's FA Alpha Daily will examine U.S. corporate earnings to see the likelihood of a brewing recession.

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  June 6, 2022

  Markets are getting stronger thanks to this changing debt metric

  

  Those looking to buy a house have likely felt the pressure of rising interest rates. As the Federal Reserve has increased the benchmark interest rate, the repercussions have trickled down the line. Average mortgage rates for thirty-year mortgages climbed from 3.37% in February to 5.57% as of a few weeks ago.

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  May 23, 2022

  Management teams aren’t worried about a recession, and you shouldn’t be either

  

  News about GDP contraction can make the market go haywire, yet markets were surprisingly calm when it was announced that U.S. first quarter GDP fell by 0.4%. Today's FA Alpha Daily will probe management teams' sentiments to gauge how they feel about the future of the U.S. economy.

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  May 16, 2022

  Consumer balance sheets aren’t only strong, they are ready to fuel more growth

  

  When the coronavirus pandemic first spiked in the US, the country saw its fastest and most material contraction in a generation. With folks staying at home, fear of a complete spending shutdown had economists worried about a deep, long-lasting recession.

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  May 9, 2022

  Supply chains remain infected even as the pandemic abates

  

  Struggling to find toilet paper and standing desks in the early days of the pandemic was only the beginning of the supply chain shortages we've experienced over the past two years.

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  May 2, 2022

  Understanding if long-term inflation risk is driving the market downward

  

  In March 2022, inflation reached its highest 12-month growth rate since December 1981. As investor fears continue, today's FA Alpha Daily will explore inflation's current outlook and if it is actually a case for concern.

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  April 25, 2022

  Meme stock mania has inspired sweeping changes in the regulatory landscape of short selling

  

  Early last year, both financial and traditional media outlets were swept up in the meme stock mania. Retail investors sought to undermine what they believed to be out-of-touch billionaires who had made their money on similar trades.

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  April 18, 2022

  Why growth in biotech can continue even after COVID

  

  While many industries faltered during one of the most critical public health emergencies in history, most companies in the healthcare industry were able to scale even more rapidly than in the past.

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  April 11, 2022

  Why history’s best investors love a market bottom

  

  Equity investor sentiment has been erratic due to the pandemic and the uncertainties brought about by the war in Ukraine. Today's FA Alpha Daily will reveal John Templeton’s strategy to reap gains amidst the crisis.

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  April 4, 2022

  Inflation isn’t disrupting corporate America as much as you might think

  

  As inflation has risen over the past year, everything seems to have gotten more expensive, including food, hotels, car rentals, and tires.

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  March 25, 2022

  This market hedge never makes its money back

  

  Indian families are flocking to buy gold and demand in the country hit an all-time peak in 2021. Today’s FA Alpha Daily will dig in why gold should be avoided despite inflationary fears.

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  March 21, 2022

  The yield curve is a useful tool in gauging recessions, if the right one is used

  

  Many analysts turn to the two-year and 10-year Treasury yield spread as a warning sign for an upcoming recession.

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  March 14, 2022

  Here is the number to watch in anticipation of the next crash

  

  Last week, the U.S. and the U.K. announced another pivotal step in the effort to pressure Russia to halt its war in Ukraine. They announced a ban on imports of Russian oil and Russian-finished petroleum goods.

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