CrowdStrike (CRWD) is a leading American cybersecurity company.

It provides a cloud-native endpoint protection platform called Falcon that uses artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to detect and prevent cyber attacks across endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, and data.

Falcon collects and analyzes over 1 trillion endpoint-related events per week from its customers. This massive threat data is fed into CrowdStrike’s AI models to continuously improve its detection capabilities.

Falcon also offers services like threat intelligence, managed response, and identity protection on top of the core endpoint protection.

By 2024, CrowdStrike had become the largest standalone cybersecurity vendor in the world, serving over half of the Fortune 500 companies.

It was growing rapidly due to its AI-powered next-gen approach that was more effective than legacy antivirus solutions. The company’s stock price has increased more than 5-fold since its IPO in 2019, until last week…

On July 19th, 2024, CrowdStrike rolled out a routine software update for Falcon that was intended to patch vulnerabilities and add new features.

However, this update contained a critical bug that caused Windows systems to crash globally upon installation.

As organizations worldwide ran the defective update, it brought down infrastructure and paralyzed operations across multiple industries.

Planes were grounded as air traffic control systems crashed. Banks froze as core banking platforms went offline. Hospitals struggled as medical records became inaccessible.

The outage highlighted the fragility of modern systems and over-reliance on a single point of failure. Even organizations that did not directly use CrowdStrike were impacted as their vendors and partners faced issues.

It took over 12 hours for CrowdStrike to issue a hotfix that resolved the bug, but the damage was already extensive.

This was CrowdStrike’s first major incident since its founding and represented an unprecedented failure of its AI/ML-powered platform.

Understandably, customers and prospects lost trust in the company’s ability to prevent disruptive bugs.

CrowdStrike could see slower sales cycles as organizations delay purchasing decisions. Some existing customers also could switch to competitors or adopt multi-vendor strategies for added redundancy.

Furthermore, its stock price declined by nearly 25% since July 19.

The incident was a stern lesson for CrowdStrike on the responsibilities of a market leader. It reinforced the need for meticulous testing, rollback contingencies, and overcommunication during incidents.

Ultimately, the company could build trust over time through transparency and product enhancements. But the outage remains a cautionary tale for all cybersecurity vendors.

Best regards,

Joel Litman & Rob Spivey
Chief Investment Strategist &
Director of Research
at Valens Research

This analysis of CrowdStrike (CRWD)’s credit outlook is the same type of analysis that powers our macro research detailed in the member-exclusive FA Alpha Pulse.